What’s the future for a vacant city

The commercial property market in Auckland is finally starting to look truly more buoyant.

Some new commercial premises are about to be built, and there is definitely an air of confidence around. Just look at the buzz surrounding the opening of the Wynyard Quarter down at the Viaduct Harbour.

It has been particularly up and down since the Global Financial Crisis and I had to smile today thinking of how, nearly two years ago, I was optimistically talking about green shoots arising from the crisis. Well they have certainly been slow growing shoots!

But despite the market becoming more lively, there is an emerging and possibly permanent trend… high vacancy levels.

There are a number of factors that make me think this trend is here to stay, despite the usual market fluctuations.

If we look at existing commercial property vacancy levels that are continuing to rise, coupled with trends in remote working and online retail activity, vacant downtown space could be here to stay.

This was brought into sharp focus for me this week when research emerged regarding online retail trends. It suggests online shopping in New Zealand is about to boom to $1 billion a year.

The researchers say DVD rental stores, book shops and appliance stores may start to struggle.

It really makes me speculate that our city centres are on the verge of radical change. What will become of the ever-increasing amount of vacant office and retail space?

It is obvious that alternative uses will need to be found for these spaces. Will they be residential? Will our traditional concepts of centralised places for work and shopping change quite radically?

Perhaps Auckland should look at the exciting concepts being created for Christchurch, where designers are taking a completely new look at how they will use their city and the forms of their retail, residential and office occupation.

Closer to home, look at what Takapuna is doing to revitalise its city centre. Several older buildings in Hurstmere Road are being gutted and realigned towards Takapuna beach. Within this redevelopment will come water-edge parks, cafes and even boardwalks along the beachfront to create an easy flow from the beach to the city centre.

I obviously don’t have a crystal ball, but the online commerce trends and ability to work remotely are growing incredibly fast and with it a brave new world for our downtown districts.